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Global oil demand is projected to grow modestly—by approximately 680,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 700,000 b/d in 2026—driven largely by lingering weakness in major economies such as China, India, and Brazil. Meanwhile, supply is surging: OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers are expanding production, resulting in forecasted supply growth of around 2.5 million b/d this year and 1.9 million b/d next year. This disparity is contributing to rising oil stocks and a growing imbalance in the market.
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a substantial oversupply on the near horizon, with forecasts indicating that supply will exceed demand by up to 2 million b/d into 2026, and potentially creating a historic surplus by 2026. Elevated inventories, weakening back-term premiums, and narrowing spreads reflect growing bearish pressure on prices. While geopolitical disruptions may provide temporary support, the outlook remains dominated by structural oversupply through mid-decade.
IEA warns of oil surplus ahead

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• Hellenic Shipping News – “Oil market imbalance set to increase…”
• Financial Times – IEA warns of oversupply through 2026 ft.com
• Reuters – Supply pressure and market premiums slipping reuters.com

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