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China’s Property Slump Dampens Dry Bulk Carrier Demand
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China’s ongoing property-market downturn is reducing appetite for construction commodities, and shipbrokers warn this trend will suppress demand for dry bulk carriers. Market analysts anticipate a prolonged lull in iron ore and cement shipping unless major stimulus emerges.
The deepening crisis in China’s real estate sector, marked by sharp declines in residential construction, new starts, and completions, is directly curbing demand for construction-related bulk cargoes like iron ore, cement, and steel—crucial to dry bulk shipping volumes. Intermodal reports that in the first five months of 2025, real-estate investment fell 10.7% year-on-year, with residential construction down by over 9% and new starts plunging 21%, indicating a steep drop in commodity intake tied to housing.
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Broker Intermodal adds that the property slowdown is structural—not cyclical—exacerbated by weakened developer finances, elevated household debt, and extensive unsold inventory, meaning cargo flows related to real estate are likely to stay subdued through at least 2026. While first-tier cities show relative resilience, lower-tier markets remain mired in decline, keeping demand soft. Though infrastructure and green-renewal projects may provide limited support, the dry bulk freight market faces a “new normal” of reduced volumes, particularly for supramax and capesize vessels in construction-linked sectors.
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